Trump’s Gulf allies fear his Iran agreement is a ‘disastrous turning point’

Trump’s Gulf Allies Concerned Over New Iran Agreement

Trump s Gulf allies fear his Iran – Arab Gulf leaders long considered their ties with Washington as a critical security alliance. For years, this partnership underpinned their regional stability and economic prosperity. However, President Donald Trump’s approach to the relationship shifted the focus from strategic reliance to a more transactional dynamic. In 2018, during a conversation with Saudi monarch King Salman, Trump emphasized the financial burden on the US, declaring, “King, we’re protecting you. You might not be there for two weeks without us. You have to pay for your military.” This remark encapsulated his administration’s view of the alliance, contrasting sharply with the Gulf’s perception of it as a foundational pillar of their security.

The 2019 Attack and Rising Doubts

One year later, Saudi Arabia endured its most significant assault in decades when Iranian-backed militants struck key oil facilities, halting nearly half of the kingdom’s crude production. The attack sent global oil prices surging and sparked immediate blame from Washington, which accused Iran of orchestrating the strike. Yet, Gulf leaders found themselves questioning the extent of American commitment to their defense. Despite the US’s public condemnation of Tehran, the attack exposed vulnerabilities in the regional security framework, leaving Gulf states to wonder whether their protection was guaranteed or conditional on financial arrangements.

A War That Tested the Pledge

By the end of Trump’s second term, the Gulf states had grown wary. Their support for the US was evident as they pledged trillions of dollars in investment, aiming to bolster Washington’s economy. Trump, however, chose the region for his first official foreign trip, arriving in Doha, Qatar, last May. There, he vowed, “We are going to protect this country,” a statement that was meant to reassure Gulf allies. Yet, this pledge faced its greatest challenge this year when the US, alongside Israel, launched a military campaign against Iran. The conflict triggered fierce retaliatory strikes across the Gulf, forcing regional governments to reevaluate the value of American backing.

As the war unfolded, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio traveled to the UAE, Bahrain, and Kuwait, seeking to address concerns about the emerging ceasefire deal. His visit, marked by urgent discussions, aimed to convince Gulf leaders that the agreement would safeguard their interests. However, skepticism lingered. Many in the region questioned whether the deal would truly secure their future or merely shift the balance of power in favor of Iran.

The Deal’s Discontents

Hasan Alhasan, a senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), warned that the Iran-US agreement represents a “disastrous turning point” for regional security. According to him, the pact is part of a broader US retreat from the Gulf, which has eroded trust in Washington’s reliability. “US disengagement from the Gulf and the flow of financial and economic resources to Iran are likely to embolden Tehran further,” Alhasan told CNN. He highlighted that Gulf states, despite their opposition to the 2015 nuclear agreement under Obama, had backed the current deal, viewing it as a preferable alternative to ongoing conflict.

The new agreement, however, has left many Gulf nations uneasy. While it addresses Iran’s nuclear ambitions, it fails to resolve critical concerns about the country’s missile program and its network of proxy militant groups. These issues, which Gulf leaders consider more pressing, remain unaddressed. The 14-point peace plan, unveiled last week, includes provisions for Iran’s oversight of commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz alongside Oman. This arrangement allows Tehran to monitor Gulf states’ maritime trade, including vital energy exports, raising fears of increased Iranian influence over regional commerce.

The Cost of Peace

Rubio’s visit underscored the economic stakes of the agreement. The pact includes a $300 billion reconstruction fund for Iran, a commitment that Trump secured through Gulf state support. Yet, the deal’s financial components have sparked debate. While the fund is intended to aid Iran’s recovery, Gulf leaders are concerned about the long-term implications of funneling resources to a country that has repeatedly targeted their infrastructure. “We want to hear their thoughts, especially in the aftermath of this weekend in Switzerland, and make sure that their views are taken into account in every decision,” Rubio stated upon landing in Abu Dhabi, referring to the agreement’s signing.

Historically, Gulf nations had opposed the 2015 nuclear deal, arguing that it did not sufficiently constrain Iran’s regional ambitions. They welcomed Trump’s 2018 withdrawal from the agreement, believing it would signal a stronger stance against Tehran. But the current pact, despite its compromises, has not alleviated their fears. A senior Gulf diplomat told CNN that the conflict demonstrated Iran’s well-organized plan to target the region, a threat that the new agreement may only amplify. “This agreement allows Iran to operate more freely in the Gulf,” the diplomat said, adding that the Gulf’s confidence in US leadership has been severely shaken.

Unresolved Questions

While the ceasefire deal offers a temporary reprieve, it leaves unresolved questions about the future of US-Iran relations. Trump’s administration has prioritized economic gains over security guarantees, a strategy that has tested the loyalty of Gulf allies. The agreement’s emphasis on financial incentives over military deterrence has raised concerns that the US may no longer be willing to defend the region as aggressively as before. “From the Arab Gulf states’ perspective, the Iran war is a disastrous turning point for the regional security order,” Alhasan reiterated, noting that the deal’s structure reflects a shift in US priorities.

For the Gulf states, the agreement’s success hinges on whether it strikes a better balance between security and diplomacy. While they have supported the deal to avoid further bloodshed, they remain cautious about its long-term consequences. The US’s decision to grant Iran a formal role in overseeing the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic chokepoint for global oil shipments, has drawn particular scrutiny. This move could enable Tehran to exert greater control over trade routes, potentially threatening Gulf energy exports and economic stability.

As the new agreement takes shape, Gulf leaders are weighing its benefits against their vulnerabilities. The war has exposed their reliance on US military power, but the ceasefire offers a chance to rebuild ties through economic cooperation. Whether this balance will hold or if the agreement marks the beginning of a new era of Iranian influence in the region remains uncertain. For now, the Gulf states continue to monitor developments, hoping that the US will deliver on its promises while safeguarding their interests in a shifting geopolitical landscape.