Steve Rosenberg: Russia seeks diplomatic and economic gains from Iran war
Steve Rosenberg: Russia seeks diplomatic and economic gains from Iran war
Within a week, two phone calls have taken place between Russia and Iran. As the US and Israel intensify their military actions against Iran, Russian President Vladimir Putin positions himself as a global mediator. Yet, this narrative faces skepticism, given Russia’s role in the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which the UN General Assembly denounced as a breach of the UN Charter. Despite this, Putin now advocates for a “swift de-escalation and political resolution” of the Iran conflict, while Russia persists in its war against Ukraine.
Strategic Ties and Mediation Efforts
Russia and Iran are bound by a “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership” agreement, which Putin recently reaffirmed, expressing “unwavering support” for Tehran. However, this alliance lacks a formal mutual defense pact. Instead, Moscow aims to leverage the situation by acting as a mediator. During a Monday call with former US President Donald Trump, Putin emphasized the need for diplomatic solutions, citing interactions with Gulf leaders and other international figures.
“Putin wants to be helpful,” Trump stated after the conversation. “I said, ‘You could be more helpful by getting the Ukraine-Russia war over with. That would be more helpful.'”
Economic Motivations Behind the Conflict
The Iran war also offers Moscow financial advantages. Recent spikes in global oil prices have significantly bolstered Russia’s revenue, aiding its ongoing war in Ukraine. The federal budget relies on oil exports at $59 per barrel, but prices have recently surged to nearly $120, remaining above that threshold. Trump’s proposal to waive oil sanctions on certain nations could further benefit Russia, potentially increasing its economic gains.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that easing sanctions on Russia would be a “serious blow” to Kyiv. Meanwhile, pro-Kremlin outlets like Komsomolskaya Pravda highlighted the opportunity for Western sanctions to be reconsidered. However, some Russian newspapers have criticized Trump and his stance on the Iran war, with one tabloid declaring, “The ‘peace president’ has simply lost his mind. The Emperor has no clothes. Or rather, no sanity.”
Geopolitical Ambitions
Russia’s engagement in the Iran conflict underscores its broader strategy to enhance influence in the Middle East and Gulf regions. By mediating the dispute, the Kremlin seeks to solidify its position as a key international actor. This approach also aims to maintain favorable relations with the Trump administration, which Moscow believes supports its objectives in Ukraine.
