Trump beats a longtime adversary with a late Georgia endorsement, and other election takeaways

Trump’s Georgia Endorsement Triumphs Over Kemp, Setting Stage for High-Stakes Senate Race

Trump beats a longtime adversary – On Tuesday, President Donald Trump achieved a significant victory in Georgia’s Republican primary by endorsing Mike Collins, a state representative, over the more moderate candidate Derek Dooley. This win marked a turning point in the GOP race to challenge Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff, who is now poised to face Collins in the November general election. While Trump’s backing helped Collins secure the nomination, voters in Georgia demonstrated their own preferences by rejecting both Trump and Kemp’s candidates in separate contests. The outcome of these races has sparked discussions about the future of the Senate seat and its potential influence on the 2028 presidential election.

Georgia’s Senate Race: A Defining Moment for the GOP

The Senate race in Georgia has become one of the most pivotal contests in this year’s midterm elections. Collins’ victory over Dooley, a former football coach, highlights the deepening divide within the Republican Party between more traditional figures like Kemp and the far-right-aligned candidates Trump is favoring. For Trump, the endorsement was a strategic move to assert dominance in a state he narrowly lost in 2020, a decision rooted in his frustration with Kemp’s reluctance to support his claims of election fraud during the 2020 presidential race. Kemp, who has long been a political force in Georgia, had previously sought to oust Trump by backing his own challenger in 2022, but this time, the former governor found himself on the defensive.

“That’s not exactly the right thing to say, and it’s certainly not what we all stand for with Make America Great Again,” Trump said during a telephone rally for Collins on Monday.

Despite the political tension, the race remains deeply competitive. Ossoff, who has $32 million in campaign funds, holds a substantial financial advantage over Collins, a fact that has raised concerns among Republicans about the feasibility of defeating him in November. The Senate seat is seen as a critical battleground, with its outcome potentially shaping the Democratic Party’s chances of reclaiming the White House in 2028. If Ossoff wins re-election, his path to the presidential nomination could be further solidified, making him a formidable candidate for the next cycle.

A Mixed Bag for Trump’s Picks in Other States

While Collins’ win in Georgia was a highlight for Trump, his influence in other races was more uneven. In Alabama, Trump-backed candidate Barry Moore secured the GOP Senate nomination, marking another success for the former president’s endorsement strategy. However, in Oklahoma, Trump’s choice for governor, Mike Mazzei, finished in second place, capturing only about a quarter of the vote. The race there will head to a runoff, leaving Trump’s influence in question. Meanwhile, in the gubernatorial race, the self-funded businessman Rick Jackson narrowly defeated Lieutenant Governor Geoff Duncan, who had the backing of both Trump and Kemp. This outcome underscores the challenges Trump’s allies face in persuading voters outside of Georgia.

Despite these mixed results, Trump’s endorsement of Collins in Georgia carried symbolic weight. The former president’s decision to support a candidate who has aligned with his “Make America Great Again” movement signals his continued focus on consolidating conservative support. For Kemp, the loss of Dooley in the runoff is a setback, as it means his influence over the Republican base may be waning. The governor, who narrowly won re-election in 2022, is now left to grapple with the consequences of his earlier decision to distance himself from Trump’s claims of election fraud.

Ossoff’s Road to 2028: A Democratic Hope or a Political Liability?

Senator Jon Ossoff, the first millennial elected to the U.S. Senate, has emerged as a key figure in Democratic circles, with many viewing him as a potential contender for the 2028 presidential nomination. His ability to attract large donations and mobilize support has positioned him as a formidable opponent in Georgia. However, his campaign faces a daunting task in November, where he will need to outmaneuver Collins and maintain his lead in fundraising. The Senate race is not just about defeating a single opponent; it is also a test of Ossoff’s viability as a national candidate.

Democrats have long considered Ossoff a rising star, but Republicans are keenly aware of his ambitions. Kemp, who narrowly lost his 2022 re-election bid, was once seen as a potential counterweight to Ossoff in the Senate. Now, with Kemp’s picks losing in both the gubernatorial and Senate races, the former governor has become a political liability. As the only Democratic senator running for re-election in a state Trump won in 2024, Ossoff’s survival in November is crucial to his political future. A defeat could derail his prospects for 2028, a risk that both parties are mindful of.

“A fall defeat would render any 2028 talk moot,” remarked a senior Democratic strategist, emphasizing the stakes of the November election.

Collins, meanwhile, has positioned himself as a strong contender for the Senate seat, vowing to return the seat to Georgia’s voters. “It’s to put a Republican in that seat and get rid of that Jon Ossoff in November,” Collins told supporters on Tuesday night, framing the race as a referendum on Trump’s legacy in the state. His campaign is banking on the idea that a Republican victory will not only restore the Senate seat to the GOP but also serve as a warning to Democrats about the challenges of holding onto a traditionally red state.

Political Realities and Long-Term Implications

Georgia’s elections have long been a microcosm of national political trends, and this cycle is no different. The state’s split between urban and rural voters, as well as its diverse electorate, makes it a strategic prize for both parties. Collins’ win in the GOP primary, combined with Trump’s continued influence, suggests that the state’s Republican base is still aligned with the former president’s vision. However, the fact that voters rejected both Trump and Kemp in their respective races indicates a growing appetite for change, even within the GOP.

Ossoff’s campaign, while well-funded, is also aware of the political challenges ahead. His advisors have acknowledged that the focus must remain on 2026, when he will face Collins again. The outcome of the November race will not only determine the Senate’s balance of power but also set the stage for the 2028 presidential election. For Republicans, the goal is to secure a seat that could weaken Ossoff’s position as a potential presidential candidate. For Democrats, the task is to protect their lone senator in a state where they have struggled to maintain a foothold.

As the midterm elections approach their climax, the events in Georgia serve as a bellwether for the broader political landscape. Trump’s endorsement of Collins has solidified his role as a kingmaker in the GOP, but it has also highlighted the internal struggles within the party. Kemp, despite his loss in the Senate race, remains a central figure in Georgia politics, and his failure to secure a nomination may have long-term repercussions. The state’s voters are now looking to the future, with the November election likely to be remembered as a defining moment for both the Senate race and the 2028 presidential bid.

In the governor’s race, the outcome further illustrates the shifting dynamics of political support. Rick Jackson’s victory over Lieutenant Governor Geoff Duncan, with the backing of both Trump and Kemp, suggests that the state’s voters are still willing to consider candidates outside of the traditional power structures. However, the fact that Jackson’s campaign relied heavily on self-funding raises questions about his ability to maintain momentum in a competitive race. The governor’s race is a separate but equally important contest, with implications for Georgia’s political future.

Ultimately, Tuesday’s elections have underscored the importance of Georgia as a battleground state. Whether Collins or Ossoff emerges victorious in November will not only shape the Senate’s balance of power but also influence the trajectory of the 2028 presidential race. For now, the state’s voters are focused on the immediate challenge, but their decisions will have lasting consequences for national politics.