As former Nato chief warns about defence spending, how much has the military shrunk?
As Former Nato Chief Warns of Defense Spending Concerns, UK Military Size Shrinks
Lord Robertson, the ex-Defense Secretary and Nato Secretary General, has raised alarms over the UK’s current defense strategy, claiming it jeopardizes national security. He criticized the government’s Strategic Defence Review (SDR) for failing to meet necessary investment thresholds. “We cannot defend Britain with an ever-expanding welfare budget,” he cautioned, emphasizing the growing gap between defense and social spending.
UK Armed Forces: A Decade of Reduction
Since 1990, the UK military has undergone significant downsizing. The regular army, which once numbered 153,000 troops at the end of the Cold War, now stands at 73,790. The 2025 SDR aimed to prevent further cuts, setting a target of maintaining at least 73,000 regular soldiers. However, recent data shows a 40% drop in applications to join the regular army in 2025 compared to 2024.
The Royal Navy has also seen a decline, reducing its major combat ships from 48 in 1990—13 destroyers and 35 frigates—to 11 frigates and 6 destroyers today. This reduction has sparked debates about readiness, particularly after the Navy took weeks to deploy HMS Dragon to the Gulf for a mission supporting a Royal Air Force base in Cyprus.
Meanwhile, the RAF has transitioned from over 300 combat jets in 1990 to a mix of 137 Eurofighter Typhoons and 37 F-35 Lightning II aircraft. While these modern jets offer advanced capabilities, their numbers are lower than the Cold War era. Uncrewed aircraft systems, or drones, have emerged as a critical component of the UK’s air force, a technology absent in 1990. Their role has grown dramatically, especially after their lethal impact in the Ukraine conflict, where they reportedly outpace traditional artillery in casualties.
Defense Spending: A Slump Since the Cold War
The government has defended its approach, stating it plans “the largest sustained increase in defense spending since the Cold War.” Yet analysts argue this is a modest goal, as defense budgets have steadily declined since the fall of the Berlin Wall. The current target of 2.5% of GDP for NATO-qualifying defense spending by April 2027 places the UK near the middle of NATO member spending, with an aspiration to reach 3% by the next Parliament.
Lord Robertson highlighted the disparity between defense and welfare spending, noting that in the mid-1980s, defense costs were higher than social programs. Today, welfare spending is projected to reach 4.3% of GDP by the end of the decade, driven by rising claims for benefits like Personal Independence Payments (PIP). While mental health issues may contribute to this trend, experts remain uncertain about the exact causes.
NATO Targets and Procurement Challenges
The UK has pledged to meet a NATO goal of 5% GDP allocated to national security by 2035. This includes 3.5% for core defense and an additional 1.5% for infrastructure protection and civil preparedness. In 2025, only Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia exceeded the 3.5% defense spending threshold, though Estonia and Norway were close.
Procurement delays have further complicated matters. The Ministry of Defence (MoD) manages 47 of the 213 Government Major Projects Portfolio (GMPP) initiatives in 2024-25. A December National Audit Office (NAO) report revealed that 12 of these projects were rated ‘Red,’ indicating their completion appears unlikely. The NAO also pointed out that the MoD typically takes six and a half years to finalize contracts for projects over £20 million, far exceeding the 2025 SDR’s two-year target for efficiency.
Despite these challenges, the government remains focused on long-term goals. However, critics argue that the current spending levels and procurement inefficiencies may hinder the UK’s ability to respond to evolving threats, such as those posed by Russia and the Middle East, while relying on outdated systems.
“We cannot defend Britain with an ever-expanding welfare budget.”
