‘Even if Iran war ends now, farmers’ costs will have to be passed on’
Even if Iran War Ends Now, Farmers’ Costs Will Have to Be Passed On
News of the conflict in Iran has left fruit grower Ali Capper shaken, as she anticipated the toll on the UK’s agricultural sector. The war has intensified during a crucial planting period, driving up expenses for fuel and fertilisers. Despite a two-week ceasefire announced to ease tensions, Ali argues the financial strain is already too deep to reverse. She represents British apple and pear growers, and says the rising costs are “baked in” regardless of the war’s resolution.
New data reveals farm operating costs have surged by over 7% since last March, according to The Andersons Centre. This is the first estimate of the sector’s overall impact since the conflict began. The research firm, which works with the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, warns of another “cost of farming squeeze.” Farmers have shared with the National Farmers Union that they can no longer cover these additional expenses, forcing food prices to climb.
Cost Increases Across the Board
Ali’s farm in Suckley, Worcestershire, has faced a 40% rise in fertiliser costs, alongside a 100% increase in red diesel prices for tractors. Transport expenses have also climbed by about 20%. These hikes are linked to the Strait of Hormuz, which has disrupted global fertiliser supply chains. Red diesel, essential for machinery and heating, has soared due to Brent crude’s skyrocketing cost.
“We will have to pass this on,” Ali says, noting that supermarkets will decide how much to raise prices for customers.
The Food and Drink Federation predicts UK food inflation will reach at least 9% by year-end, even if the conflict ends soon. Ali also expects higher costs for plant protection products and packaging, adding to the pressure on growers. She recalls the Ukraine-Russia war’s impact, which forced many farmers into losses or forced them out of business. “It was really brutal,” she explains, “and when I heard the war had started again in Iran, I felt quite sick.”
Potato farmer Ben Savidge has already seen red diesel prices climb from 65-70p a litre to 96-105p. His farm in Ross-on-Wye, Herefordshire, now faces an extra £5 per tonne in planting costs. While he’s absorbed these expenses for now, he hopes to secure better deals with customers. “Last year’s dry summer hit yields hard,” he says, “and now energy prices are up again, it feels like one crisis after another.”
Patrick Crehan, who manages fuel purchases for a 3,500-member agricultural consortium, notes that prices have fluctuated. Before the conflict, red diesel cost around 70p a litre, but just before the ceasefire, it reached 130p. Since Wednesday, it has slightly eased. Still, many farmers are struggling to cover their costs. “Some are considering not planting at all,” Patrick says, “because the expense of growing and managing crops this year is too high.”
Although most farmers continue planting, Patrick forecasts a “highly unlikely return” to profitability. His company, AF Group, buys 120 million litres of fuel annually, highlighting the scale of the challenge. With energy, fuel, and fertiliser costs at record levels, the pressure on the agricultural sector shows no signs of easing.
