Ceasefire or no ceasefire, the Middle East’s reshuffling is not yet done

Ceasefire or no ceasefire, the Middle East’s reshuffling is not yet done

The latest diplomatic efforts in Pakistan to broker a ceasefire face a daunting challenge: the U.S. and Iran must overcome deep-seated distrust and divergent priorities. Israel’s aggressive actions in Lebanon, escalating its military campaign, have complicated matters for both sides. Even as U.S. President Donald Trump speaks of the war in past tense, declaring victory, his administration’s push for an exit remains tied to broader political and economic goals.

Trump’s upcoming schedule—ranging from a royal visit to King Charles to a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping in May—demands a swift resolution. Midterm elections in November and the need to stabilize petrol prices ahead of the American summer holidays further pressure his decision. Meanwhile, Iran, though defiant and still capable of launching missiles and drones, has been significantly weakened. Its cities face economic paralysis, and the regime seeks leverage through these talks to recover its footing.

Pakistani mediators, tasked with bridging the gap between the two delegations, navigate a chasm of opposing stances. Trump’s 15-point plan, though not yet released, appears more like a surrender strategy than a negotiation blueprint. Iran’s 10-point proposal, meanwhile, lists demands consistently dismissed by the U.S. in prior disputes. Any lasting ceasefire will require compromises on their conflicting priorities, even if consensus remains elusive.

The Strait of Hormuz has emerged as a critical sticking point. Blocking this vital waterway disrupts global oil flows, and its reopening is now central to the talks. Despite the U.S. and Israel’s strikes, Iran retains the ability to exert economic pressure. For Middle Eastern civilians, who have borne the brunt of the conflict, the negotiations offer a fragile chance for peace.

War erupted on 28 February when the U.S. and Israel launched massive attacks, killing Iran’s supreme leader and key family members. Initial hopes of regime collapse were dashed as Iran’s leadership showed remarkable resilience. Mojtaba Khamenei, the late leader’s son, remains unaccounted for since his succession, fueling speculation about his injuries in the attack. Trump, anticipating a quick triumph akin to the U.S. military’s capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro, now confronts adversaries he claims to have defeated.

“A capital V military victory,” US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth insisted, underscoring the administration’s belief in its strategic dominance. Yet, the war has already altered the Middle East’s power dynamics. While Iran’s armed forces and infrastructure have taken heavy damage, the regime remains intact. This suggests that tactical gains have not translated into long-term geopolitical shifts, leaving the region in flux.

With no clear agreement in sight, the path to renewed conflict remains open. The ceasefire talks, though promising, are merely a temporary reprieve in a conflict that continues to reshape alliances and outcomes.