Iran war: Why is Russia not coming to Tehran’s aid?
Iran war: Why is Russia not coming to Tehran’s aid?
The Iranian government, facing limited global alliances, has leaned heavily on Moscow’s backing amid escalating US-Israeli strikes. Despite its reliance on Russian support, Tehran has found itself disappointed as the strikes continue. Russia, a key ally, has yet to act decisively in defense of the regime, raising questions about its commitment during this critical moment.
Strategic Alliances and Economic Ties
Russia and Iran have long maintained a cooperative relationship, particularly through vital economic ventures. Nikita Smagin, an Azerbaijan-based analyst specializing in Middle Eastern affairs, highlighted the North-South transport corridor as a cornerstone of this partnership. “This project is essential, especially since Russia lost access to its conventional transit routes after invading Ukraine in February 2022,” he noted. The 7,200-kilometer multi-mode network, involving Russia, India, and Iran, was signed in 2000 and passes through Azerbaijan. According to the Gulf Research Center, 75% of the initiative is complete.
Military Contributions and Drones
Russia has also played a role in Iran’s military operations, supplying Shahed drones since 2023. Julian Waller, a Russia Studies analyst at the Center for Naval Analyses, observed that these drones significantly altered the dynamics of the Ukraine conflict. “Iran’s involvement in the war effort was valuable, even though Russia has since developed its own production capabilities,” Waller explained to DW. The strategic alliance includes intelligence sharing and the shipment of missiles and ammunition to Tehran.
A Reluctant Partnership
Although their alliance is pragmatic, Russia’s political stance toward Iran is not entirely aligned. Smagin noted, “Russian leaders don’t necessarily admire Iran’s ideology, but they see it as a dependable partner.” Both nations face international sanctions, unlike Turkey or Egypt, which might hesitate to engage with Moscow under Western pressure. Gregoire Roos, director at Chatham House, suggested that Iran has even become a mentor for Russia in navigating sanctions. “Tehran’s experience in evading economic restrictions has offered Moscow practical strategies,” Roos stated.
Non-Attack Pact with Israel?
Experts speculate that an informal agreement with Israel might deter Russia from intervening. However, Mojtaba Hashemi, an international relations scholar, argued that Iran anticipated more than just verbal backing. “The regime expected tangible military and political support, including shared intelligence and a deterrent stance against its adversaries,” Hashemi said. He pointed out that Moscow and Beijing have broader priorities, providing Iran with weapons and tools for repression without direct involvement.
Unexpected Outcomes for Moscow
Some analysts believe Russia’s hesitation is not unexpected to Tehran. Mohammad Ghaedi, a George Washington University lecturer, cited remarks by former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who claimed, “Russia has always sold out the Iranian nation.” President Masoud Pezeshkian, following the June 2025 12-day conflict, echoed similar sentiments. “Our allies failed to deliver during the war,” he remarked. A prolonged conflict could, however, benefit Moscow, as Roos suggested. “The focus on Iran might reduce attention on Ukraine, giving Russia strategic breathing room,” he added.
