Turkey caught in the middle as Iran war escalates
Turkey caught in the middle as Iran war escalates
Turkey’s anxiety has grown as the conflict between Iran and the US-Israel alliance intensifies. The nation is apprehensive that this confrontation could unravel stability in the broader region. For years, Turkey has functioned as a vital link between Europe and the Middle East, both geographically and politically. As tensions surged between Washington and Tehran, Ankara initially sought to act as a mediator, cautioning that a renewed war would be “a mistake.”
“Iran is prepared to resume discussions on the nuclear issue,” stated Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan in an interview with Al Jazeera late in January. “I consistently advise our American allies to resolve the nuclear matter first, then proceed to address other matters with Iran.”
Turkey worries that the US-Israel campaign against Iran could ignite a regional conflagration, triggering humanitarian, economic, and political consequences. The shared border between Iran and Turkey spans 530 kilometers, a region where the Kurdish minority is heavily concentrated. The country is concerned that hostilities might worsen economic conditions, increase inflation, disrupt energy flows, and reduce tourism revenue. Ankara also fears that political instability in the Middle East could reignite conflicts with armed Kurdish factions within its borders.
Humanitarian concerns have intensified due to missile strikes near Turkey’s territory, raising fears of a new wave of refugees. In 2015, Turkey absorbed millions of Syrians fleeing war, despite domestic economic struggles. Now, the government hesitates to welcome another influx from Iran. Reports indicate that displacement camps are being planned on the Iranian side of the border, and the existing wall between the two nations has been under construction for years.
Turkey maintains several key NATO installations, including Incirlik Air Base, the largest US military site in the country, and the Kurecik Radar Station in eastern Malatya. Although Iran has not yet targeted these locations, NATO recently intercepted two Iranian missiles. The first was deflected over the Mediterranean on March 4, en route to Turkish airspace. Turkish officials, speaking anonymously, suggested the missile might have strayed toward Cyprus. Iranian military officials, however, denied targeting Turkey, affirming their respect for its sovereignty.
On Monday, a second Iranian missile entered Turkish airspace before being neutralized near Gaziantep. In response, Turkey’s defense ministry announced plans to station a Patriot missile system near the Kurecik radar base. Sinan Ulgen, head of the Istanbul-based Center for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies, noted that Turkey has aimed to stay neutral. Despite this, diplomatic outreach to the US, EU, and Gulf nations has not yielded significant results. He argued that none of the warring parties are prioritizing negotiations, implying Turkey’s efforts serve as a strategic positioning move.
According to government sources, Ankara is carefully advancing initiatives with all relevant parties to foster equitable dialogue between the conflicting sides. However, the nation faces a tough choice: a collapse of Iran’s government might lead to chaos in its neighboring regions, while the current regime’s survival could still bring unrest. Media reports hint that the US may leverage Kurdish forces for a ground operation in Iran, a development that has unsettled Turkish officials.
While Turkey officially views the PKK as defeated and the YPG as weakened, supporting Iranian Kurdish groups could alter regional power balances. This could jeopardize the government’s “terror-free Turkey” initiative, which relies on peace talks with the PKK. The recent missile incidents highlight Turkey’s precarious position, balancing its strategic alliances with the need to protect its own interests.
