How depleted weapons stockpiles could affect the Iran conflict
How Depleted Weapon Stockpiles Could Impact the Iran Conflict
Amid escalating tensions, US President Donald Trump insists his nation holds a “virtually unlimited supply” of essential military equipment. Meanwhile, Iran’s defense ministry emphasizes its ability to withstand opposition for extended periods. While stockpiles alone may not determine the war’s outcome—Ukraine has often faced numerical and firepower disadvantages against Russia—these reserves remain a crucial element in shaping the conflict’s trajectory.
Intensive Combat Drains Resources
From the outset, the war has seen rapid weapon usage. The Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) reports that the US and Israel have launched over 2,000 strikes, each requiring multiple munitions. Iran, in turn, has deployed 571 missiles and 1,391 drones. However, many of these have been intercepted, raising concerns about the sustainability of such high-intensity efforts as the war continues.
“Iran’s ballistic missile launches have declined by 86% since the first day of fighting,” stated Gen Dan Caine, America’s top commander. US Central Command (Centcom) noted a 23% drop in missile activity within the past 24 hours.
Iran had previously mass-produced tens of thousands of Shahed drones, which it has shared with Russia. These drones have proven effective in Ukraine. Despite this, Caine observed a 73% reduction in Iran’s drone deployments. The sharp decline suggests challenges in maintaining production, though it may also signal a strategic shift to conserve supplies.
Strategic Shifts and Air Superiority
With US and Israeli jets securing air dominance, most of Iran’s defenses have been neutralized. Its air force now faces significant vulnerabilities. Centcom highlights the next phase of the war: targeting Iran’s missile and drone launch sites, as well as its production facilities. This focus could weaken Iran’s capacity to retaliate, though complete destruction of its stockpiles remains difficult.
Iran spans an area three times larger than France. Even with air superiority, weapons can still be concealed in remote locations. Historical precedents, such as Israel’s struggle to dismantle Hamas in Gaza or the Houthi rebels’ survival during a year-long US campaign, underscore the limitations of aerial warfare in depleting an adversary’s arsenal.
“After the initial long-range strikes, the US can now rely on cheaper, more accessible weapons,” said Mark Cancian of the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). He noted that the military’s shift to “stand-in” munitions, like JDAM bombs, allows for sustained operations “almost indefinitely.”
As the war persists, the list of viable targets shrinks. This trend may naturally slow the pace of combat. While the US maintains a vast stockpile of JDAM bombs, air defense systems are in shorter supply. These systems were critical in the early stages for countering Iranian retaliatory strikes. The reliance on precision-guided weapons, despite their cost, highlights the strain on production capabilities. Trump’s planned meeting with defense contractors signals the urgency to accelerate manufacturing, even as the war’s intensity begins to wane.
